Tuesday, July 09, 2019

Engines of growth -- and new ideas

Fly low over a major urban settlement and what do you see?  A mesh of an uncountable number of supply chains, including supply chains for things and for ideas.

Discussions of cities and how they work are of three kinds. Economists like the neoclassical model of spatial equilibrium; sites are evaluated by competitors and equilibrium site rents emerge. Designers (often utopians) like ambitious plans: their top-down design skills can be scaled-up significantly. Followers of Jane Jacobs disagree and celebrate the complex spatial arrangements that emerge bottom-up; knowledge is complex and dispersed.

Most urban planning is about growth controls, containment, limits to sprawl – all of which are based on an abiding faith in getting big things right, top-down.  The fact that most urbanization continues to be at the edges demonstrates that the old-time religion fails again and again. But it does impose costs, notably housing unaffordability for many. “Costs of sprawl” indeed.  These are the costs of anti-sprawl.

Agglomeration (often vaguely defined) explains why cities even exist. My favorite approach to agglomeration introduces the idea of supply chains for ideas. Think of it this way.  Ideas are not simply “in the air” and therefore public goods – and a challenge to economic modeling. Rather, we keenly seek useful ideas for our various projects (thank you, JoelMokyr).  Also, as we engage in normal (ubiquitous) supply chaining, we are likely to exchange ideas along the way.  At many of these junctures, ideas can be re-stated or refined, perhaps in new and interesting ways. As new ideas make new product, there is feedback to ideas. Ideas are purposefully exchanged and renewed. How else would we get enhanced productivity and growth?

Supply chains are all about specialization and gains from trade.  Supply chains can be very long and very complex. They are ubiquitous. We all participate in an uncountable number of supply chains – for things and for ideas – as demanders and as suppliers.  Whereas Coase taught that entrepreneurs and managers grapple with the make-or-buy challenge, add the obvious thought that what to make or buy where is embedded in these decisions.

Everyone is keen to find conveniently located trading partners -- where trades can involve things and/or ideas. We approach site choice with this in mind. Exchanging ideas may (or may not) involve nearness.  Tacit idea exchange and trust-building may require nearness. Many ideas, many things, many modes of communication: many choices to evaluate and trade off.
John Cho and I have shown (using plant location data for Los Angeles) that nearby (same census block group) location (“clustering”) is barely explained by input-output links. These (sales as well as purchases) only explain about 2% of the block-group association. That leaves supply chains for ideas.

Enhanced discovery, growth, and human betterment depend on how things are arranged in space. Let the sharp people discover these. There is no other way. This is how cities become "engines of growth."


Listen to what Will says about cities.

Sunday, July 07, 2019

Be a persuader

David C. Rose explains Why Culture Matters Most. Small-group moral intuitions, small-group trust, are our heritage. But how to get large-group trust? How do we get and sustain the many individual acts that create and sustain large-group trust? Large-group trust is a commons and hard to sustain. Rose writes that today's multiculturalism embraces tribalism and is a step backward. Yet he remains optimistic. “Changing prevailing beliefs is hard but we have done it before.” (p. 168). He cites the civil rights movement and the environmental movement as recent spontaneous examples.

Civil rights, yes. Re environment, its complicated.  The LA Times reports L.A. is hemorrhaging bus riders — worsening traffic andhurting climate goals” (June 27, 2019).  The LA bus system has been declining for years because of the 40-year (and counting)  MTA drive to build high-cost-low patronage rail transit.  They want to “get people out of their cars”. But they are moving in the opposite direction. I keep citing Baptists and Boootleggers (thank you, Bruce Yandle). It’s one of those ideas (like economic growth) that once you start thinking about it, you cannot get it out of your head. 

So Mancur Olson was right. Cronyism is inevitable in the modern mixed economy – and it just gets worse over time.  In this conversation, George Will and JonahGoldberg conclude with, “be a persuader.” This is from two of the best. It will have to do.