Thursday, September 16, 2010

In the long run

Matt Kahn's Climatopolis is a good read. It acknowledges that doomsters are usually wrong because they don't understand market forces, that long run climate forecasts evoke a dire picture, that the world's poor are (alas) most at risk in case of any turn for the worse, that our policy makers are not good at getting the prices right (water, floodplain insurance, farm subsidies, etc).

He seems to accept many 70-100 year warming forecasts, but admits that long run forecasts can be bunk, but we don't really know. He compares the fix that we may find ourselves in with that of a 55-year old who buys life insurance, but lives to be 95.

In yesterday's WSJ, Bjorn Lomborg reiterated his view that knowing more in this situation is a good thing and that is within our grasp with more R&D funding. "The smart middle path means making green energy so cheap everyone wants it. There's nothing confusing about it."