Friday, July 03, 2015

Certainties and uncertainties

It's pretty awful that if you type "climate change de ..." into Google' search window, you quickly get "climate change deniers" (as in Holocaust deniers?) and thousands of links. Of all places, science should not be the place for lockstep agreement and thought police. Yet, that is where we are.  Matt Ridley makes the point brilliantly.

When will coastal property values crash?  This blogger is certain they will and says that the "deniers" will (someday) be the only buyers. And then we'll see!

This report speculates which communities will be threatened by rising sea levels. But I have seen no evidence that this has actually happened in anywhere the U.S. In fact, Al Gore recently bought sea-front property in Montecito, California. What was he thinking?

Prediction markets are best. Asset markets are prediction markets. Uncertainties everywhere but keep your eyes on the relevant markets.