Friday, October 14, 2016

Eve of (self-) destruction

There are many things one can say about the two major party candidates for President but no one has suggested that either is Churchillian. Lee Pollock recently posted "What would Churchill think of Trump and Clinton?" in the WSJ (gated by now). The piece includes two of the great man's (attributed to him) most memorable (and relevant to this election year) utterances. “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” And “Democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms.” Did he ever attempt to reconcile these two? What flavor of democracy was he thinking about?

Our flavor includes an Electoral College whereby most states award that states' electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. The Wikipedia post site mentions that there are two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska. The post's authors say this about these two states: 

Except for Maine and Nebraska, all states have chosen electors on a "winner-take-all" basis since the 1880s.[5] That is, each state has all of its electors pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in that state. Maine and Nebraska use the "congressional district method", selecting one elector within each congressional district by popular vote and selecting the remaining two electors by a statewide popular vote.
Given all this, can Gary Johnson garner enough electoral votes to put the selection into the House of Representatives?  The House apparently most chose from the top three vote-getters.

By then, two will be seen as exposed and as losers -- and we could get an adult.

My previous posts on this topic presumed that Trump and Clinton would self-destruct at about the same pace so that there would be no clear Electoral College majority by early Nov. Each have tendencies to self-destruct but they do so unevenly and unpredictably.

FiveThirtyEight has a slightly different version.