Thursday, April 06, 2017


The End of History was nice while it lasted. There are only cycles (a truism) but we never know the their timing (another truism). Mercantilism, nationalism and xenophobia are apparently back. When it comes to trade, we may get less when more would be better. The same is true of immigration.

"Fairness" is always a daunting concept. But here is the easy part: the accident of birth is unambiguously unfair. This recent New Yorker story helps to make the point. The only serious antidote is immigration. But this is where the hard part, political troubles, comes in. Are there models of applicant vetting that have a chance of influencing the debate? I would say that finding these is job #1. Philanthropists may consider seeding efforts along these lines.

We also know that economic success depends on entrepreneurs. Here is one more study that documents the fact that we get more entrepreneurs when we get more immigrants. Always recall that these great people want badly to come here.

So the current retreat from win-win liberal ideas leaves us where? First, we look for occasional bright-side evidence on people's attitudes towards immigration -- wherever we may find it. Second, we recall that the pendulum will swing back. It always has. As always, we do not know when.