Sunday, March 31, 2019

Time horizons

Robert Shiller writes “Modern Monetary Theory Makes Sense, to a Point” (MMT) in today’s NYT.  What is MMT?  It comes out of the Bernie Sanders campaign (among others) and seems to say “print all the money you want -- because you can.”  Sound silly? 

The printing must be for “good causes.” But aren’t they all? 

And increased national debt is not a problem “because we owe it to ourselves.” But who is “us”?  Mercantilism (you would have thought) was disposed of many years ago.  Are nations meaningful economic entities?  Most people are interested in with whom they trade insofar as whether they trust them enough to arrange a mutually attractive deal. Nationality only enters the discussion when political economy becomes tribalist crazy. There is way too much tribalism in the world without this.

I have been driving Japanese cars almost my whole (driving) life.  The national origins of the product are irrelevant.  So it is with most purchases – unless politicians seize on national origins of product for their own jingoist reasons.

But say this for the MMT people. They have three things going for them. (1) Americans (for the most part) have stopped caring about the national debt. (2) And – to this point – they have been right. The world continues to want U.S. securities in their portfolios.  (3) And politicians love to spend but hate to tax.

So go for it? Political time horizons are what they are. Reason #995 for small government.


Arnold Kling calls it Modern Ponzi Theory