Thursday, February 06, 2020

Be careful out there

Watching last night's State of the Union was not easy. With cameras on and the nation watching, preening and pandering were on full display.  That's our democracy (our politics). Some of the post-event talking heads, who were obliged to say something cited perennial stats about the low esteem/low approval that the public accords to "Congress."  But that's a silly view in light of the fact that these guys get re-elected at astoundingly high rates, mostly in the 90-percent range, always over 80-percent, year after year.

It's simple to reconcile the two points. People's view of Congress is almost irrelevant.  But people tend to like "their guy". Or he/she becomes their guy by "bringing home the bacon". After all, incumbents have to make it their business to know their constituents and also what buttons to push. It's a simple point. Consider the players, not the categories.

On a similar theme, a favorite political topic is "worsening" income inequality. But the bulk of the arguments made compare snapshots of different groups over time, not the progress of real people over time. Even better, what is inter- generational mobility? What are the odds that someone born at the bottom can move to the top? Where and when?

Data are great but a some judgment is always essential. Big Data alone cannot do the job.


Here is a brief post about the anomaly of people who trust their government less but want it to do more.