Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Demography is destiny -- politics is local

Michael Barone writes about "The Realignment of America" (gated) in today's WSJ. He looks for the voting bloc implications.

Blue state-red state and the other cliches obscure much more than they reveal. And immigration is very big, especially in the coastal cities. And as immigrants arrive, others move out.

"The result is that these Coastal Megalopolises are increasingly a two-tiered society, with large affluent populations happily contemplating (at least until recently) their rapidly rising housing values, and a large mostly immigrant working class working at low wges and struggling to move up the economic ladder. The economic divide in New York and Los Angeles is starting to look like the economic divide in Mexico City and Sao Paulo."

Can the politics of these places be far behind? In part this recalls David Brooks' Patio Man, who sought places where he could best avoid his two nemises, the very rich and the very poor.