Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Dueling forecasts

Here is a climate change report from a respected source: "A 50% rise in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, higher temperatures, with more droughts and storms harming people, crops and buildings, more animal and plant species becoming extinct under expanding farmland and urban sprawl, dwindling natural resources; a billion more people living in water stressed areas by 2030, with more pollution, disease and premature deaths ahead. This 'worst-case' scenario set out by he OECD Environmental Outlook, should be enough to grab everyone's attention." How could it not?

The current Forbes includes "Sun Worshippers" and includes industry forecasts of total solar power costs per watt for 2015, suggesting that it will be drop by more than 50%.

Most of us are not in the forecasting business, but we still have to decide which of the two 50% scenarios to bet on. The latter is probably the safer bet. The joker, of course, is the prospect of ever more energy policy and the like.